QQQ Short Iron Condor: Historical Today-Like Case Paths
All paths are percentage moves from the trigger-day close. Good cases show post-selloff consolidation or controlled rebound; bad cases show continued expansion beyond the short-condor range.
Condition
Today-like
QQQ daily return <= -2.5% and same-day high-low range >= 3%
Cases
30
5-year QQQ history
Good rate
66.7%
short IC PnL positive
Avg PnL
$120
1-lot proxy
Percentage paths after trigger day
Each line starts at 0% on the trigger-day close. Green lines are good short-IC cases; red lines are bad cases.
Good cases vs bad cases
| event | case | trigger return | trigger range | D+5 close | 5D max high | 5D min low | short IC PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-10 | GOOD | -4.25% | 5.15% | -0.47% | 4.23% | -3.04% | $788 |
| 2022-05-18 | GOOD | -4.91% | 4.26% | 0.04% | 3.82% | -3.75% | $490 |
| 2022-05-09 | GOOD | -3.91% | 4.59% | 0.43% | 4.11% | -4.11% | $476 |
| 2022-02-11 | GOOD | -3.17% | 4.11% | -1.60% | 3.75% | -2.28% | $476 |
| 2025-03-10 | GOOD | -3.88% | 3.24% | 2.12% | 2.77% | -1.33% | $441 |
| 2022-05-11 | GOOD | -2.97% | 4.50% | -0.24% | 5.04% | -2.36% | $424 |
| 2022-04-29 | GOOD | -4.50% | 4.67% | -1.28% | 5.44% | -2.60% | $411 |
| 2022-06-28 | GOOD | -3.05% | 4.34% | 1.86% | 4.27% | -2.74% | $397 |
| 2022-01-13 | BAD | -2.50% | 3.38% | -6.88% | 3.13% | -6.95% | $-803 |
| 2025-04-04 | BAD | -6.21% | 4.19% | 7.51% | 10.68% | -4.80% | $-675 |
| 2022-05-05 | BAD | -5.04% | 4.99% | -6.98% | 3.91% | -8.96% | $-517 |
| 2022-02-23 | BAD | -2.56% | 3.97% | 5.40% | 5.82% | -3.39% | $-480 |
| 2022-06-09 | BAD | -2.68% | 3.28% | -9.36% | 3.22% | -10.06% | $-472 |
| 2025-04-16 | BAD | -3.02% | 3.35% | 5.22% | 5.29% | -3.66% | $-424 |
| 2022-10-14 | BAD | -3.01% | 4.48% | 5.63% | 6.32% | -0.23% | $-412 |
| 2022-08-26 | BAD | -4.10% | 4.61% | -3.99% | 4.58% | -4.71% | $-159 |
Interpretation
Good cases generally stopped expanding after the trigger day: the D+5 close stayed near the trigger close, or the move reversed but did not keep exploding past the outer range. Bad cases are the tail events: the selloff continued, or the rebound was large enough that the short IC lost despite collecting credit.
All numbers are percentages from the trigger-day close, so this directly answers whether the move kept expanding after the signal.
Raw data
{
"title": "QQQ Short Iron Condor: Historical Today-Like Case Paths",
"tldr": "All paths are percentage moves from the trigger-day close. Good cases show post-selloff consolidation or controlled rebound; bad cases show continued expansion beyond the short-condor range.",
"today": {
"date": "2026-06-05",
"close": 705.0599975585938,
"daily_return_pct": -4.800095663859216,
"range_pct": 3.881938446651546
},
"condition": "QQQ daily return <= -2.5% and same-day high-low range >= 3%",
"summary": {
"cases": 30,
"good_cases": 20,
"bad_cases": 10,
"good_rate": 0.6666666666666666,
"avg_short_ic_pnl": 119.75305517364907,
"median_d5_close_pct": -0.10427450248461922,
"median_max_high_pct_5d": 3.984397976241605,
"median_min_low_pct_5d": -2.7818095741063367
},
"cases": [
{
"event_date": "2025-04-10",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -4.253217437814428,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 5.145903409380826,
"d5_close_pct": -0.4661787582376342,
"max_high_pct_5d": 4.229231504665232,
"min_low_pct_5d": -3.0368882548292397,
"short_ic_pnl": 788.3379062024985,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
"day": 0,
"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 2.1090151545515745,
"low_pct": -3.0368882548292397
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": 1.8423026587357505,
"high_pct": 2.1538393982333703,
"low_pct": -1.0870099723031545
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": 2.5326120319741685,
"high_pct": 4.229231504665232,
"low_pct": 1.4456054257350637
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": 2.6469144531841238,
"high_pct": 3.630825603372756,
"low_pct": 2.2345256440029937
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": -0.44824748429518335,
"high_pct": 1.4433663842567723,
"low_pct": -1.8871248771665017
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": -0.4661787582376342,
"high_pct": 0.35187536253065144,
"low_pct": -1.0802853377814614
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-05-18",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -4.90903148981131,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.259117013323587,
"d5_close_pct": 0.041193971576158894,
"max_high_pct_5d": 3.8160282999841977,
"min_low_pct_5d": -3.754255506987869,
"short_ic_pnl": 489.62166903763915,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
"day": 0,
"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 3.8160282999841977,
"low_pct": -0.44308871333939015
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": -0.5358548802601337,
"high_pct": 1.1162804632816048,
"low_pct": -1.2228094332808026
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": -0.8450031669478109,
"high_pct": 0.9135984421361432,
"low_pct": -3.754255506987869
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": 0.8037124454384204,
"high_pct": 0.9376631293480875,
"low_pct": -1.3224126832987015
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": -1.339567325698543,
"high_pct": -0.7831356844721249,
"low_pct": -3.0535159829251035
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 0.041193971576158894,
"high_pct": 0.7728022408106439,
"low_pct": -1.9372384768219564
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-05-09",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -3.9126834536859167,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.5869107059651135,
"d5_close_pct": 0.4341104932119144,
"max_high_pct_5d": 4.1056747291340345,
"min_low_pct_5d": -4.109018891864958,
"short_ic_pnl": 476.05912764383476,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
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"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 4.1056747291340345,
"low_pct": -0.48123597683108477
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": 1.2148900657516837,
"high_pct": 2.8975421268522705,
"low_pct": -0.19517318305805054
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": -1.7869877865346773,
"high_pct": 2.3355088373413713,
"low_pct": -2.0864944456996604
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": -2.019167806729827,
"high_pct": -0.4711257817767822,
"low_pct": -4.109018891864958
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 1.6119891004730436,
"high_pct": 1.968710500418247,
"low_pct": -1.033145165827587
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 0.4341104932119144,
"high_pct": 1.719658792859824,
"low_pct": -0.006743408642184701
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-02-11",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -3.172152321922095,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.111686633905657,
"d5_close_pct": -1.5991264933263083,
"max_high_pct_5d": 3.7486342007561735,
"min_low_pct_5d": -2.282004251134495,
"short_ic_pnl": 475.5361626507039,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
"day": 0,
"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 3.7486342007561735,
"low_pct": -0.36305243314948
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": 0.1238876319946014,
"high_pct": 1.1294833481940492,
"low_pct": -0.913389875772519
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": 2.6133870694394545,
"high_pct": 2.682536566744287,
"low_pct": 1.371527519037774
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": 2.5874556301064278,
"high_pct": 2.889993472871777,
"low_pct": 1.0516931354735748
},
{
"day": 4,
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"high_pct": 1.8440760726205152,
"low_pct": -0.5877811997036853
},
{
"day": 5,
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"high_pct": -0.07201626671611283,
"low_pct": -2.282004251134495
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2025-03-10",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -3.8756254345170826,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 3.238634570005446,
"d5_close_pct": 2.1238114201760583,
"max_high_pct_5d": 2.7732321716142705,
"min_low_pct_5d": -1.3326956038210769,
"short_ic_pnl": 441.14316632719374,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
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"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 2.3776764692648333,
"low_pct": -0.8609581007406053
},
{
"day": 1,
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"high_pct": 1.2861288188574127,
"low_pct": -1.2100076230582957
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": 0.8863338778503982,
"high_pct": 1.7620946123874326,
"low_pct": -0.19885309445276667
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": -0.9286587372249855,
"high_pct": 0.7509473131886546,
"low_pct": -1.3326956038210769
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 1.465940831600654,
"high_pct": 1.656323033060625,
"low_pct": 0.08248564461228458
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 2.1238114201760583,
"high_pct": 2.7732321716142705,
"low_pct": 1.0724712810383785
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-05-11",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -2.965846082860213,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.502461724144907,
"d5_close_pct": -0.2398148400365785,
"max_high_pct_5d": 5.043892480656509,
"min_low_pct_5d": -2.3642805092703667,
"short_ic_pnl": 423.7441254047212,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
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"high_pct": 4.197505535127899,
"low_pct": -0.3049561890170027
},
{
"day": 1,
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"high_pct": 1.3398041411232464,
"low_pct": -2.3642805092703667
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": 3.4608213416976508,
"high_pct": 3.824033294885565,
"low_pct": 0.767558802767021
},
{
"day": 3,
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"high_pct": 3.570450086362098,
"low_pct": 1.8126359611322584
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 4.910263007021998,
"high_pct": 5.043892480656509,
"low_pct": 2.9845408866595147
},
{
"day": 5,
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"high_pct": 3.567062057784276,
"low_pct": -0.6818409608868481
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-04-29",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -4.499876292618099,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.670392620211487,
"d5_close_pct": -1.276929749530742,
"max_high_pct_5d": 5.439773113816959,
"min_low_pct_5d": -2.59856259342941,
"short_ic_pnl": 410.53154502236424,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
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"high_pct": 4.462892573448718,
"low_pct": -0.20750004676277634
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{
"day": 1,
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"high_pct": 1.7462182657099978,
"low_pct": -1.1492352400225059
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{
"day": 2,
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"high_pct": 2.5283415458012604,
"low_pct": 0.8715170581820919
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{
"day": 3,
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"high_pct": 5.439773113816959,
"low_pct": 0.20433882644246282
},
{
"day": 4,
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"high_pct": 3.8308148650964657,
"low_pct": -1.1588120167724147
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": -1.276929749530742,
"high_pct": 0.5873948057742107,
"low_pct": -2.59856259342941
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-06-28",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -3.046683303874287,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.338007837444232,
"d5_close_pct": 1.8551240934004731,
"max_high_pct_5d": 4.270997032732304,
"min_low_pct_5d": -2.7368189110983265,
"short_ic_pnl": 396.78130495234495,
"short_ic_good": true,
"path": [
{
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"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 4.270997032732304,
"low_pct": -0.0670108047119422
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{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": 0.09168315263130555,
"high_pct": 0.63481935404337,
"low_pct": -0.9522581426456456
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{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": -1.149741106915969,
"high_pct": 0.14108346538623806,
"low_pct": -2.7368189110983265
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": -0.49728360291654283,
"high_pct": -0.3562121870670176,
"low_pct": -2.2959737534104407
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 1.206181000082296,
"high_pct": 1.2485013510400211,
"low_pct": -2.394719034700754
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 1.8551240934004731,
"high_pct": 2.613403223436883,
"low_pct": 0.7230115871142084
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]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-01-13",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -2.5015993732592556,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 3.381345360865152,
"d5_close_pct": -6.876561117045188,
"max_high_pct_5d": 3.1271507292469636,
"min_low_pct_5d": -6.953352020457537,
"short_ic_pnl": -802.9001739338863,
"short_ic_good": false,
"path": [
{
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"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 3.1271507292469636,
"low_pct": -0.25419463161819866
},
{
"day": 1,
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"high_pct": 0.7122626225446904,
"low_pct": -0.7414310882513653
},
{
"day": 2,
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"high_pct": -0.3813173182900087,
"low_pct": -2.0892055678795374
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": -2.9603463098290095,
"high_pct": -0.7864358543696381,
"low_pct": -3.0318443479663726
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": -4.220740238836029,
"high_pct": -1.0035628154679066,
"low_pct": -4.3663706256281465
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": -6.876561117045188,
"high_pct": -4.098933212662647,
"low_pct": -6.953352020457537
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2025-04-04",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -6.210882880352331,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.187659669989671,
"d5_close_pct": 7.507029866649106,
"max_high_pct_5d": 10.684447905994876,
"min_low_pct_5d": -4.798068962639846,
"short_ic_pnl": -674.7991663904628,
"short_ic_good": false,
"path": [
{
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"high_pct": 4.187659669989663,
"low_pct": 0.0
},
{
"day": 1,
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"high_pct": 4.843021890874177,
"low_pct": -4.798068962639846
},
{
"day": 2,
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"high_pct": 4.843019032878804,
"low_pct": -3.04729826882425
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": 10.251489226046463,
"high_pct": 10.684447905994876,
"low_pct": -1.7129284084324903
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 5.56225366083416,
"high_pct": 7.7885775880273345,
"low_pct": 2.3564459778752322
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 7.507029866649106,
"high_pct": 7.835895069844256,
"low_pct": 4.414781436552939
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-05-05",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -5.036424689690544,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 4.99361178364616,
"d5_close_pct": -6.980811308231171,
"max_high_pct_5d": 3.9137380191693216,
"min_low_pct_5d": -8.964834591912108,
"short_ic_pnl": -517.0447601614953,
"short_ic_good": false,
"path": [
{
"day": 0,
"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 3.9137380191693216,
"low_pct": -1.0798737644768464
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": -1.1980858304537212,
"high_pct": 0.667727643844529,
"low_pct": -2.520774179542118
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": -5.063891978090518,
"high_pct": -1.166124182211603,
"low_pct": -5.520758684895178
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": -3.910522632921054,
"high_pct": -2.313078254561718,
"low_pct": -5.249181801988312
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": -6.760388633453407,
"high_pct": -2.8466507854108647,
"low_pct": -7.044728598931094
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": -6.980811308231171,
"high_pct": -5.511160459197195,
"low_pct": -8.964834591912108
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-02-23",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -2.561538174203204,
"trigger_day_range_pct": 3.9706107823151453,
"d5_close_pct": 5.403430909232032,
"max_high_pct_5d": 5.819311864167798,
"min_low_pct_5d": -3.3877596014308287,
"short_ic_pnl": -479.82490719685273,
"short_ic_good": false,
"path": [
{
"day": 0,
"close_pct": 0.0,
"high_pct": 3.873468134274738,
"low_pct": -0.09714264804040473
},
{
"day": 1,
"close_pct": 3.3604593114133774,
"high_pct": 3.5274249986239736,
"low_pct": -3.3877596014308287
},
{
"day": 2,
"close_pct": 4.963266349784723,
"high_pct": 5.0270214267308155,
"low_pct": 2.4194091347281343
},
{
"day": 3,
"close_pct": 5.275943758780088,
"high_pct": 5.804151178819206,
"low_pct": 3.612419722061433
},
{
"day": 4,
"close_pct": 3.6640046756069466,
"high_pct": 5.664489113567939,
"low_pct": 2.877775502984248
},
{
"day": 5,
"close_pct": 5.403430909232032,
"high_pct": 5.819311864167798,
"low_pct": 3.284552091316617
}
]
},
{
"event_date": "2022-06-09",
"trigger_day_return_pct": -2.6784200987921447,
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