Recommendation
no action / hold until normal Friday rebalance
Current broad regime inputs are still positive; early full rebalance would mostly chase drift and increase turnover.
Why: The implemented strategy is a long-only 20d momentum rotation with no tested hedge sleeve. As of the latest closed bar, SPY/QQQ 20d momentum is still positive, the current target basket remains positive, and the normal Friday rebalance is close. If Steve wants risk reduction because of discretionary market concern, use cash reduction rather than untested hedges.
Change condition: Move to light risk-off if SPY 20d crosses below 0, QQQ 20d crosses below 0, or positive breadth drops below 35%. Move to emergency de-risk only if SPY 20d < -2%, QQQ 20d < -3%, or there is an account/market liquidity issue.
Signal Lines
| Symbol | Rank | 20d Momentum | Selected | Current Sleeve Value | Current Weight | Target Weight | Diff vs Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 1 | +66.20% | yes | $7,692.68 | 38.5% | 31.1% | $-1,481.51 |
| AMD | 2 | +46.84% | yes | $3,965.47 | 19.8% | 22.0% | $428.78 |
| QCOM | 3 | +29.19% | yes | $2,987.25 | 14.9% | 13.7% | $-248.86 |
| SOXX | 4 | +25.30% | yes | $2,113.57 | 10.6% | 11.9% | $260.40 |
| FCX | 5 | +24.36% | yes | $0.00 | 0.0% | 11.4% | $2,285.21 |
| LRCX | 6 | +21.28% | yes | $2,089.34 | 10.4% | 10.0% | $-92.34 |
| QQQ | 20 | +9.47% | no | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| SPY | 27 | +4.94% | no | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| IWM | 33 | +3.20% | no | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $0.00 |
| INTC | 50 | -0.21% | no | $2,123.66 | 10.6% | 0.0% | $-2,123.66 |
Discretionary Early Risk-Off Plan If Steve Insists
This is not the primary recommendation. If Steve explicitly wants to reduce downside before the normal Friday run, do a light cash-raising rebalance only: raise about $3,605.17 and avoid adding new exposure.
| Symbol | Action | Approx Notional | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | sell | $2,123.66 | No longer top-6; 20d momentum below zero; sell to cash only if Steve wants early risk-off. |
| MU | sell | $1,481.51 | Overweight versus latest target; optional trim to raise cash without adding new exposure. |
| AMD | hold | $0.00 | Still in target basket; avoid unnecessary churn before Friday. |
| QCOM | hold | $0.00 | Still in target basket; avoid unnecessary churn before Friday. |
| SOXX | hold | $0.00 | Still in target basket; avoid unnecessary churn before Friday. |
| LRCX | hold | $0.00 | Still in target basket; avoid unnecessary churn before Friday. |
| FCX | avoid_new_buy_until_scheduled_rebalance | $0.00 | New top-6 entrant, but adding it now increases exposure; wait for normal Friday unless Steve wants full scheduled rebalance. |
Do not buy FCX early under a downside-risk concern; that would be a full scheduled rebalance, not risk-off.
Full Scheduled-Rebalance Targets If Steve Explicitly Wants Full Rotation
Recommended base case: do not trade before the scheduled Friday rebalance. If Steve explicitly approves full early rotation anyway, use these latest closed-bar target weights. This is not risk-off because it remains fully invested and adds FCX.
| Symbol | Target Weight | Target Value | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 31.1% | $6,211.17 | keep/trim |
| AMD | 22.0% | $4,394.25 | keep/add |
| QCOM | 13.7% | $2,738.39 | keep/trim |
| SOXX | 11.9% | $2,373.98 | keep/add |
| FCX | 11.4% | $2,285.21 | keep/add |
| LRCX | 10.0% | $1,997.00 | keep/trim |
Reduce/avoid: INTC
Freshness / Source
- Source: Alpaca market data via AlphaVault Ops data credentials; feed used:
iex; split-adjusted daily bars. - Latest raw daily bar date:
2026-06-03; latest closed signal bar used:2026-06-02; current date UTC:2026-06-03. - Market clock: open=
True, timestamp=2026-06-03 15:24:33.990328-04:00, next_open=2026-06-04 09:30:00-04:00, next_close=2026-06-03 16:00:00-04:00. - Strategy does not use intraday weakening signals for orders; intraday concern is discretionary overlay and needs approval.
Safety
- No trades submitted.
- No order intents created.
- No shared AlphaVaultOps files edited.
- Any live rebalance requires explicit Steve approval and must route through ExecutionGateway + AlpacaBroker.