Small-Cap Adaptive Strategy Research

Second iteration for HIVE/RGTI/NOW/HIMS/QS/EOSE/SOFI. The new variants add regime entry, volume confirmation, flexible theme switching, lower turnover, and SHY fallback to improve 6M/1Y behavior.

Best ObjectiveLow Turnover Leader Rotation V2 R5

Best 6M Sharpe1.53

Best 1Y Sharpe1.55

Best Eval Net Sharpe1.69

Adaptive V2 Candidates

Low Turnover Leader Rotation V2 R5

Obj 1.76

3M+17.9%Sharpe 3.66

6M+14.0%Sharpe 1.47

1Y+54.0%Sharpe 1.43

MaxDD 6M-7.6%Turn 0.13

Eval PASS Net Sharpe 1.55 OOS 3.20 Corr 0.18

HIVE22.00%FSLR22.00%CLSK22.00%ENPH16.53%SHY10.00%ASTS7.47%

Hybrid Adaptive Smallcap V2 R5

Obj 1.67

3M+19.2%Sharpe 3.01

6M+16.3%Sharpe 1.53

1Y+56.1%Sharpe 1.37

MaxDD 6M-7.5%Turn 0.13

Eval PASS Net Sharpe 1.59 OOS 2.76 Corr 0.28

HIVE20.24%FSLR18.00%ASTS11.60%CLSK8.56%ENPH7.19%RGTI7.00%QS6.61%QQQ5.98%IONQ5.85%TDOC4.71%SHY4.25%

Low Turnover Leader Rotation V2 R2

Obj 1.57

3M+15.9%Sharpe 3.32

6M+9.5%Sharpe 1.06

1Y+57.1%Sharpe 1.47

MaxDD 6M-10.4%Turn 0.21

Eval PASS Net Sharpe 1.65 OOS 2.73 Corr 0.17

CLSK22.00%FSLR22.00%HIVE22.00%ENPH18.61%SHY10.00%ASTS5.39%

Seed Acceleration With Anchors V2 R5

Obj 1.56

3M+21.1%Sharpe 2.39

6M+16.1%Sharpe 1.24

1Y+73.3%Sharpe 1.55

MaxDD 6M-17.4%Turn 0.11

Eval PASS Net Sharpe 1.69 OOS 2.07 Corr 0.26

RGTI20.00%HIVE20.00%QS18.90%FSLR10.58%CLSK8.75%ENPH8.74%ASTS8.03%SHY5.00%

Adaptive Seed Theme Switch V2 R5

Obj 1.45

3M+17.5%Sharpe 2.81

6M+16.8%Sharpe 1.47

1Y+42.3%Sharpe 1.07

MaxDD 6M-10.7%Turn 0.15

FSLR22.00%HIVE19.36%ASTS17.30%QQQ14.94%IONQ14.62%TDOC11.78%

Adaptive Seed Theme Switch V2 R2

Obj 1.11

3M+16.5%Sharpe 2.40

6M+13.6%Sharpe 1.14

1Y+26.3%Sharpe 0.77

MaxDD 6M-13.0%Turn 0.26

FSLR22.00%HIVE19.36%ASTS17.30%QQQ14.94%IONQ14.62%TDOC11.78%

Hybrid Adaptive Smallcap V2 R2

Obj 1.10

3M+12.5%Sharpe 2.00

6M+7.5%Sharpe 0.77

1Y+38.2%Sharpe 1.05

MaxDD 6M-11.4%Turn 0.21

HIVE20.24%FSLR18.00%ASTS11.60%CLSK8.56%ENPH7.19%RGTI7.00%QS6.61%QQQ5.98%IONQ5.85%TDOC4.71%SHY4.25%

Seed Acceleration With Anchors V2 R2

Obj 0.84

3M+7.1%Sharpe 0.99

6M+2.5%Sharpe 0.32

1Y+43.3%Sharpe 1.07

MaxDD 6M-13.6%Turn 0.17

HIVE20.00%RGTI20.00%QS18.90%CLSK9.60%ENPH9.54%FSLR8.69%ASTS8.26%SHY5.00%

What Changed

The first pass failed your 6M concern. V2 only enters aggressively when QQQ/IWM trend confirms, scores names by 10/21/63 day risk-adjusted momentum, volume expansion and breakout distance, and falls back to SHY when risk is weak. Rebalance frequency variants use 2-day and 5-day schedules with a no-trade threshold to reduce churn.

First Pass Comparison

Strategy	3M Return	3M Sharpe	6M Sharpe	Positions
Panic Rebound Seed	+20.3%	2.61	0.47	flat
Seed Breakout Momentum	+28.1%	1.97	0.50	HIVE40.00%QS32.90%RGTI27.10%
Hybrid Breakout Theme Barbell	+13.0%	1.56	-0.09	HIVE20.60%QS17.68%RGTI14.72%QQQ12.82%ENPH8.75%CLSK8.07%SHY5.25%ELV4.35%IWM3.22%NOW2.78%AFRM1.75%
Smallcap Barbell Risk On	+7.7%	1.02	-0.21	HIVE22.00%QS20.56%QQQ20.00%RGTI17.44%IWM10.73%NOW9.27%
Theme Relative Strength	+1.5%	0.36	-1.14	ENPH25.00%CLSK23.07%QQQ19.50%SHY15.00%ELV12.43%AFRM5.01%